Papers & Reports

This article analyzes how the 2018 US-China trade war affected tariff evasion by US importers. Using detailed product-level data and a staggered difference-in-differences approach, the study finds that tariff evasion rose by 14%, mainly through underreporting import quantities. Misclassification between product categories occurred but had limited economic significance, and no significant price underreporting was detected. Evasion was more prevalent for differentiated goods, products with strong pre-war Chinese export growth, and goods with low substitution elasticity, while intermediate products saw less evasion.

This article examines how investors in the United States and China reacted to escalating trade policy announcements between February and April 2025. Using an event study approach across markets, sectors, exchange rates, and volatility indices, the analysis finds asymmetric and behaviorally driven market reactions. Chinese markets initially responded positively in technology but later experienced sharp declines across multiple sectors, coupled with currency appreciation. U.S. markets showed limited negative responses to Chinese announcements, with some positive reactions in technology. The findings reveal asymmetric interdependence between the two economies and challenge assumptions of market efficiency in the face of trade policy uncertainty.

This piece evaluates the UN Zero Draft Terms of Reference (ToR) as a foundational step toward a UN framework convention on international tax cooperation. It situates the ToR within the broader context of increasing cross-border transactions, digitalisation, and the inadequacies of existing international tax frameworks—particularly for developing economies. While acknowledging the OECD’s twin pillars, the piece argues that the UN ToR offers a more inclusive and equitable approach by addressing key concerns such as taxation of digital and cross-border services, high-net-worth individuals, and illicit financial flows. It praises the ToR's emphasis on nexus-based taxing rights and fair allocation principles, concluding that bloc-based multilateral treaties may offer a pragmatic path forward for the Global South to strengthen tax sovereignty and encourage broader international participation.

This article analyzes the evolution and current challenges of the U.S. foreign tax credit (FTC) system in the context of modern international taxation, particularly under the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework’s Pillars One and Two. It begins by tracing the historical development and policy rationale behind the FTC, a core feature of U.S. tax law since 1919. The article then examines how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), especially the GILTI provisions, has reshaped the operation and effectiveness of the FTC. With many jurisdictions already implementing the Pillar Two global minimum tax, the paper argues that the United States’ inaction could result in substantial revenue losses and reduced competitiveness for U.S. multinationals. The article also explores recent controversies, including definitional changes in 2022 FTC regulations concerning what qualifies as a creditable foreign income tax. By assessing the intersection of traditional FTC principles and the demands of a rapidly shifting global tax environment, the article advocates for a “leveling up” approach. This approach seeks to modernize the U.S. FTC rules in a way that aligns with global standards while preserving the policy goals of preventing double taxation and promoting cross-border investment.

This article quantifies the compliance costs of transfer pricing regulation by examining how multinational enterprises (MNEs) in Norway responded to enhanced documentation requirements. Using linked administrative tax, trade, and employment data, the study finds that the reform significantly increased MNEs’ reported profits, tax payments, and expenditures on tax advisory services. Specifically, external consultant costs rose by 25%, while in-house legal and accounting expenses surged by 50%. Smaller MNEs faced a relatively higher compliance burden, suggesting that transfer pricing regulation, while effective in boosting tax transparency and revenue, imposes substantial costs—particularly for less-resourced firms. These findings underscore the need for carefully calibrated anti-avoidance measures that balance enforcement with administrative feasibility.

This article explores the structural inadequacies of existing international tax rules in addressing digital value extraction in the Global South. Framed through decolonial theory, it identifies thirteen critical taxation points in the digital economy“ from AI training and algorithmic systems to data monetization and digital labor platforms—where developing countries lose revenue to multinational tech firms operating without physical presence. The article critiques the persistent mismatch between conventional tax frameworks and intangible, data-driven value creation, arguing for a paradigm shift that centers digital sovereignty and fiscal justice. To address this, it proposes targeted instruments such as digital services taxes, algorithmic decision levies, and sovereignty-based fiscal tools. This article makes an innovative contribution by articulating digital taxation as both a legal and political project aimed at redressing global inequities in the digital economy.

This article analyzes how businesses in the New York–Northern New Jersey region responded to elevated U.S. import tariffs, which have raised the costs of imported inputs to historic levels. Drawing on a regional business survey conducted in May, the study finds that most firms have passed on at least part of the increased costs to customers. Notably, about one-third of manufacturers and 45% of service sector firms fully transferred tariff-related cost increases by raising prices. These pricing decisions reflect firms’ strategic considerations, including competitive dynamics, customer tolerance for price changes, and the pressure to protect profit margins amid persistent cost shocks.

This article provides a comprehensive reconstruction of the Apple state aid case, the European Commission’s most prominent enforcement effort against corporate tax avoidance through state aid rules. By examining official documents and decisions, the article traces how the Commission concluded that Ireland granted illegal aid to Apple, focusing on its contested use of the “allocation-by-exclusion” method and its invocation of transfer pricing norms that were not contemporaneous with the disputed tax rulings. While primarily descriptive, the article reveals how the Commission’s retroactive reasoning and ambiguous invocation of the arm’s-length standard raised both procedural and substantive concerns. It serves as a factual and legal foundation for critical analysis in a subsequent companion piece.